Single Indicator Is a Lead, Not Proof
principle
Core idea
Any single on-chain indicator is a lead, not proof; corroborate with off-chain records (KYC, subpoenas, IP logs) before drawing conclusions. This matters at scale, 2025 on-chain laundering volume was estimated at over $82B (Chainalysis), because most individual patterns have innocent explanations until corroborated.
When to use
Before asserting that a wallet or person is laundering, i.e., whenever you are tempted to treat a pattern match or taint hit as conclusive.
Avoid when
Do not build a case, SAR narrative, or attribution on one on-chain signal alone; treat mixer use, dormancy, or a single transaction shape as a lead to corroborate, not a finding.
Example
A star/hub topology looks like a mule hub, but only KYC records, IP logs, and an income mismatch obtained by subpoena turn that lead into a supportable finding.
Related
Off-Chain Behavioral Red-Flag Checklist, On-Chain Laundering Pattern Catalogue