Confirmation Bias and Misleading On-Chain Data

Core idea

One of the biggest risks to a crypto investigator is confirmation bias fed by misleading information. Because it is so easy to follow assets from one address to the next, you can build a convincing but wrong narrative if you do not weigh all the context. The chain shows movement, not meaning, and movement alone will lead you down false paths.

When to use

Whenever a trail seems to confirm a theory quickly and cleanly. Treat that as a prompt to seek disconfirming context, not as proof.

Related

OSINT Paints the Picture on the Transaction Jigsaw, The Risk of Public Attribution, Never Trust a Single Source of Attribution